Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus. Prachatai/Flickr.com

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has secured a seventh consecutive term in an election denounced internationally as a ‘sham’. 

The country’s Central Election Committee (CEC) announced that Lukashenko won 86.8 per cent of the vote on 26 January, with turnout topping 85 per cent. Already the longest serving president in Europe after 31 years in power, Lukashenko’s re-election will see him remain in office until at least 2030.  

After casting his vote, the Belarusian leader gave a four-and-a-half-hour press conference live on state television. During it, he described Belarus as a ‘brutal democracy’ and rebutted criticism that there were no other serious contenders on the ballot paper. According to the CEC, the runner-up received only three per cent of the vote. 

The view, from outside Belarus at least, was that the vote couldn’t be considered democratic. ‘I wouldn’t use the word election,’ says Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarussian diplomat currently residing in the US. ‘The result doesn’t depend on what people think, it doesn’t depend on any campaign, it’s just a performance by Lukashenko’s administration.’

This year’s election was brought forward from August to January, reportedly to deter protesters from taking to the streets during the country’s bitterly cold winter. But Savva says that in Belarus, as in Russia, the eradication of political opponents has already quashed any form of meaningful dissent. ‘Lukashenko, like [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, is confident that society is not capable of mass protest without leaders, and will try to isolate all potential leaders,’ he says. 

The mass exodus of critical voices, combined with the rise in internet censorship and the dismantling of independent media outlets, probably also dampened any appetite for demonstrations, says Mark Stephens CBE, Co-Chair of the IBA’s Human Rights Institute. ‘Of course, when you crack down on human rights defenders, lawyers and journalists, there’s no flow of information,’ says Stephens, who’s a partner at Howard Kennedy in London. ‘Essentially it means people in the country are unable to come together, but they also don’t know that others are equally unhappy and won’t understand how bad and widespread the situation is.’

Slunkin, who fled Belarus in 2021, believes the climate of fear has made any form of protest or revolt impossible. ‘If I was in Belarus right now, I wouldn’t be able to talk to you,’ he says. ‘If I was there, I wouldn’t participate in protests because it doesn’t make sense. The European Union won’t save you. The US won’t help you. The democratic movement in exile can’t help you. The regime dominates and controls all aspects of your family’s lives.’

Since July, Lukashenko has granted pardons to 250 political prisoners. Savva cautions these moves should be viewed as tactical rather than compassionate. ‘The pardons are probably related to Lukashenko’s desire to make a step towards the collective West and to demonstrate his willingness to compromise,’ he says. ‘Lukashenko understands that in the event of Vladimir Putin – with whom he is closely associated – disappearing, his prospects of remaining in power are minimal. Therefore, he’s distancing himself from Putin.’

As of 30 January, there are still 1,245 political prisoners in Belarus, according to local human rights organisation Viasna. 

While Putin and leaders from China, Pakistan and Venezuela offered their congratulations to Lukashenko, Western countries have roundly criticised the failure of Belarus to meet the international standards for free and fair elections. The UN Group of Independent Experts on Belarus highlighted that ‘by not inviting international independent observers, Belarusian authorities failed to hold genuinely democratic elections.’ 

The UK and Canada responded to the election by implementing coordinated sanctions on six Belarusian officials and three defence companies. In a statement, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, decried the election as a ‘sham’. Before the vote, the European Parliament passed a resolution calling on EU Member States to continue investigating human rights abuses in Belarus and to impose stronger sanctions on Lukashenko’s administration.

Without subsequent action by the EU, it’s debateable whether statements will make any difference to the Belarusian leader, says Stephens. ‘Lukashenko is using all the tools in the authoritarian playbook and now seems to have developed a position where he’s impervious to external criticism and accountability,’ he says. 

Slunkin believes the EU may still have an important role to play. In 2023, Lukashenko signed a presidential decree ordering all Belarusian consulates to stop renewing or extending passports to Belarusians abroad. Instead, all their citizens would be required to return to Belarus to renew any documentation.

The move was a clear signal that the regime is prepared not just to ‘harm and hurt Belarusians inside Belarus, but also those who live in exile,’ says Slunkin. ‘Many people have lost their homes and can’t get documents. They risk travel to other states where they could be deported or they think if they go back to Belarus maybe nothing will happen, but then they get thrown in jail. I think that European bureaucracies can solve this and give some kind of protection to these hundreds of thousands of exiled Belarussians.’

A European Commission spokesperson told Global Insight that the decree is ‘another example of ongoing repression by Lukashenko’s regime’. Although responsibility for issuing travel documents lies at the country level, the Commission says it has called on all Member States ‘to find a legal solution […] to facilitate the legal entry and stay of Belarusian citizens in the EU.’