As delegates gather in Antalya for the 2026 UNFCCC climate talks from 9 to 20 November, the key issues on the agenda are set to include finance and the urgent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). But COP31 will also have to deal with matters deferred from the previous year’s conference in Brazil, such as the fossil fuel phase-out and the global goal on adaptation.

COP31 will take place in Turkey during a time when other events, including wars in Iran and Ukraine, are threatening to push the climate crisis down the global agenda. Nonetheless, ‘it’s important to focus on very concrete initiatives for implementation,’ says Markus Beham, Co-Chair of the IBA Human Rights Law Committee. ‘Anything that’s simply governance-driven or goal-driven will pile on to previous political dialogues’ rather than adding anything new to the conversation, he says.

Beham, who is Chair of Public International and European Law at the European University Viadrina in Frankfurt, says the outcomes of COP31 will probably focus on the operationalisation of existing climate goals, such as finance and structural pathways, including cross-sectoral targets. ‘Climate change and sustainability have been mainstreamed’ in recent years, he says. ‘When we think about operationalisation, what you’re going to see is there will be effective implementation where it becomes part and parcel of other initiatives,’ such as strategies to manage migration, for example.

Adding to the pressure is a recent UN Environment Programme report, which found that global GHG emissions must be cut by 18 per cent by 2030 and 45 per cent by 2035 – compared to 2025 levels – in order to keep the planet’s average temperature increase to 1.5C by 2100. However, current plans under the Paris Agreement would lead to a five to eight per cent reduction by 2030 and 11–15 per cent by 2035, meaning that the world is far off track. ‘There is that emphasis on urgency,’ Gerrard says of the report’s implications. And with Australia leading the negotiations at COP31 – while Turkey is to host the conference – Pacific voices are set to be brought to the fore, meaning ‘implementation speed and urgency is going to maintain focus in Antalya’, says Gerrard.

Lisa DeMarco, Senior Partner and CEO at law firm Resilient in Toronto, says the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative – a campaign to create a global treaty on phase-out – has ‘very significant influence’ and she expects to see careful wording on the transition out of coal, oil and gas at COP31. The campaign, set up as a parallel process to the UNFCCC, has built momentum, with an initial meeting held earlier in 2026 in Colombia and a follow-up scheduled for 2027 in Tuvalu.

‘There has been sensible work done off the back of COP25 in Belém,’ says Gerrard, with the countries involved now considering transition plans and ‘how they get developed and financed, including in an implementation setting that involves non-Party stakeholders’ such as NGOs and industry groups. ‘Hopefully over time, the end points become clearer,’ she says.

Meanwhile, DeMarco expects ‘big movement’ on adaptation, ‘as we’ve seen a huge number of adaptation challenges in Europe, North America and Asia, all at the same time this year.’

She’s also expecting to see developments on dispute resolution in Antalya, via ‘an overarching commercial market dispute resolution body for carbon-related contracts’. At present, she says, there are options in this regard via the UN Commission on International Trade Law, the International Chamber of Commerce and the World Bank via its International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes. ‘This has been a hot topic, and it ties into some of the accounting work,’ says DeMarco. ‘If you don’t have the requisite governance and infrastructure to effectively resolve disputes, how good really is your governance’ within the Paris Agreement, she asks.

Finally, DeMarco is looking for this year’s talks to set the stage for the next Global Stocktake, scheduled for completion at COP33 in 2028, the host of which she hopes will be confirmed in Antalya. The Global Stocktake allows countries and other stakeholders to see where they’re collectively making progress toward meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. China is reportedly considering a bid to host the talks, with South Korea also in the mix, as COP33 rotates to the Asia-Pacific. ‘You really increasingly need that two-year prep time,’ especially with the number of people attending the conference increasing, says DeMarco.

The 2026 COP talks will feature a unique governance model. The Turkish government is the host and president of COP31, while Australia is president of the negotiations. In practice, the former is responsible for the venue and related logistical matters, as well as the overarching so-called Action Agenda, while the latter oversees the formal negotiation process, including drafting texts and driving the final cover decision.

‘All eyes will be watching the unique governance of this COP, with the different presidency arrangements,’ says Gerrard. ‘Hopefully it’s a successful experiment that works and might be taken forward at other COPs.’ She says that, at intervening meetings this year, ‘there was good cohesion’ between the two countries, which bodes well for COP31.

‘It’s a learning process for both,’ says DeMarco. ‘Unlike Fiji-Bonn, it’s not as much of a natural fit,’ she says, referring to the 2017 summit – COP23 – which was presided over by Fiji but held at the UN climate secretariat campus in Bonn, Germany. This was due to the Pacific Island nation lacking the infrastructure needed to host. However, ‘we believe that Turkey and Australia are learning to work together,’ she says.

Discussing the Turkey-Australia governance model, DeMarco says ‘there’s lots of potential’ to replicate the approach, which would possibly allow such pairings in future to enable smaller nations to preside over a COP. ‘We’ll have to see when we get onto the ground whether or not it works,’ she says.

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