The 2023 Gaza war erupted with leaders of both Israel and Hamas vowing to rewrite the rules of the decades-old conflict once and for all. Each unveiled a list of ambitious yet similar goals: deal the other side a decisive blow, change realities on the ground to their advantage and claim glory along the way. But after 16 months of ferocious fighting, both sides staggered away bruised and humbled, scraping only marginal victories from their initial lofty agendas.

Palestinian liberation unmet

As evidenced by their repetitive statements, Hamas leaders said they aimed to halt incursions by far-right Israelis into the Al-Aqsa Mosque, derail a wave of Arab-Israeli normalisation deals that sidelined Palestinian grievances, free Palestinians in Israeli jails and lift the Egyptian-Israeli blockade, which choked the movement of people and goods in the already impoverished Gaza Strip.

No absolute victory for Israel

Israel’s campaign mirrored the overreach by Hamas. Far-right members of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – sworn into office at the end of December 2022 – had the most impact on the conduct of the war. They issued bellicose ultimatums at the start of the war. Their to-do list: free hostages through brute force, obliterate Hamas, reoccupy Gaza, build state-of-the-art settlements and secure seashore investments on the Mediterranean to seal ‘absolute victory’.

In the weeks that followed, the Israeli Defence Forces tried to do just that. They pummelled Hamas. They killed figures such as Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s political leader, and Yehia Sinwar, the architect of the 7 October attacks. Israel’s military strikes drastically reduced the group’s rocket arsenal and tunnel network.

On Gaza's second front in Southern Lebanon, Israel's military campaign had even more success weakening its arch-foe there, the Lebanese, Iran-backed Hezbollah. Israeli strikes decimated nearly all tiers of its top brass, including its powerful leader Hassan Nasrallah. This disruption was a blow to Iran’s networks of proxy groups that took years to build. It also created an opening for rebel forces in neighbouring Syria to challenge Bashar al-Assad’s regime, loosening Iran’s iron grip on Syria and rupturing its supply routes to proxy groups.

But, despite those achievements, Israeli leaders couldn't deliver on most of their initial bloated promises. The Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, remains a potent force, its ideology entrenched in Gaza’s battered landscape and with no real challenger inside the strip. Bereaved Palestinians have now become so jaded by the protracted Israeli bombardment they are highly unlikely to muster strength for a mutiny against such a militarized group, now hardened by the longest battle in their history.

Despite deploying overwhelming power – infantry, drones, and armoured vehicles – Israel floundered further in its core aim: freeing hostages through force without negotiating with Hamas. Hostage releases occurred only after a ceasefire deal with Hamas.

Contrary to initial Israeli government security objectives, the war further exposed Israel to fresh threats from previously dormant adversaries. From Yemen’s mountains, the Houthi rebels, another Iran proxy group, unexpectedly lobbed ballistic missiles at Israeli cities, albeit causing minimal damage, and threatened Israel-bound Red Sea maritime traffic.

While Israeli diplomacy maintained support from key allies such as the UK, Germany, and the US, the country faced unprecedented global criticism. Its reputation suffered, particularly among young people on social media in the Middle East and beyond, who were alarmed by graphic images of Gaza’s devastation.

Israel’s international standing has been eroded further, with the ICC issuing arrest warrants for its leaders – an historic first for a nation once hailed as a beacon of democracy and the rule of law.

No closure

The shaky ceasefire – brokered by the US, Qatar, and Egypt – may have provided respite but underlying tensions persist. Gaza smoulders in ruins, its infrastructure pulverised and its people teetering on the edge of survival. Gaza’s prison-like conditions still fuel despair, often a prelude to radicalisation, amongst its 2.3 million people who still live under relentless surveillance.

Israeli society, meanwhile, remains psychologically scarred by the lengthy captivity of prisoners and rocket barrages, with lingering fears over future security. Rocket threats and tunnel infiltrations still haunt the country after Hamas' daring attacks. Internal squabbling over hostage rescue strategies divided and traumatised Israeli society, fraying its sense of safety.

Leaders in Hamas and Israel may claim some partial wins, but civilians on both sides, particularly in Gaza, emerged as clear losers. Their suffering has seemed peripheral to leadership agendas. The outgoing Biden administration and Qatari officials, who helped broker the ceasefire, disclosed that the truce in its current format had been proposed in May 2024 – almost eight months before its final announcement - but without a final approval. This raised questions over the thousands of lives lost in the war’s last months. It also underscores the fact that without sober outside diplomatic intervention to cement and supervise the deal, both leaderships risk easy relapse into violence, with civilians yet again shouldering their leaders’ grandiose ambitions.

Emad Mekay is a freelance journalist and can be contacted at emad.mekay@int-bar.org

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