Former President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte at the Masskara Festival in Bacolod, 2017. Ceslou/Wikimedia Commons.

The former president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, was arrested on 11 March on an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. He’s accused of murder as a crime against humanity in relation to the ‘war on drugs’ campaign he ran as mayor of Davao City and later as state policy while president. The allegations against Duterte – who arrived in The Hague the next day – cover a time period between November 2011 and March 2019.

‘Former President Duterte’s arrest and transfer to The Hague is a long overdue victory against impunity that could bring victims and their families a step closer to justice,’ said Bryony Lau, Deputy Asia Director at Human Rights Watch, in a statement.  

At least 6,000 civilians were killed during the ‘war on drugs’ in official operations, according to police statistics. Human rights groups believe the number of those killed could exceed 30,000, however, with many of the victims having no link to drugs. Amnesty International says the killings disproportionately affected those from poor and marginalised backgrounds, while it’s alleged that the ‘war’ extended to the murder of journalists, lawyers and human rights defenders.

Duterte’s arrest sends a message that even world leaders can be held accountable, says William Julié, an officer of the IBA Criminal Law Committee. It’s also the first time a leader in Southeast Asia has been arrested by the ICC, says Ashish Bhan, an officer of the IBA’s Compliance Subcommittee. This may inspire activists across Asia to demand accountability for other crimes, he says. ‘Overall, it’s a big milestone and strengthens the ICC’s credibility as an independent and impartial court.’ 

Over the years some states have disputed the ICC’s role, or else acted in a way that defies the Court. ‘For instance, Mongolia refused to arrest [Russian President] Vladimir Putin while he was in its territory, and Hungary purposefully temporarily withdrew from the ICC while [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu was on its territory,’ explains Julié, who’s an international criminal lawyer. Both Putin and Netanyahu are the subject of ICC arrest warrants.

Duterte himself didn’t seem threatened by the ICC. ‘He dared investigators to arrest him, [probably] to show his classic bravado, and to prove his point that he did [the killings] for the good of the country […] to rid the nation of crime and drugs,’ says Andrea Chloe Wong, a non-resident research fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs.

His subsequent arrest could be a lesson, says Kelebogile Zvobgo, Director of the International Justice Lab, that an individual may evade accountability for some time and may even be popular, but still be handed over by one’s own people. It could also open doors, adds Julié, to investigations of other high-ranking officials involved in the ‘war on drugs.’

Having been alerted to a preliminary investigation by the ICC into his actions, while president Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC’s founding treaty, the Rome Statute. Given this, Zvobgo expects there’ll be some argument, ‘about jurisdiction or that there’ll be some dispute around time because the Philippines hasn’t been a member of the ICC since March 2019.’

An ICC spokesperson told Global Insight that the withdrawal of the Philippines from the ICC won’t have any bearing on the case. ‘The ICC retains jurisdiction over crimes allegedly committed during the period when a State was party to the Rome Statute and it is possible to exercise this jurisdiction even after the withdrawal becomes effective,’ says the spokesperson.

Sarah Williams, a professor in the School of Global & Public Law at the University of New South Wales, still expects Duterte’s legal team to make the argument that the ICC has no jurisdiction over the case. ‘I’d be quite shocked if we don’t see a challenge jurisdiction as a preliminary interlocutory request,’ she says. 

Duterte’s arrest has led to protests in the Philippines – both for and against the former president. ‘Duterte continues to remain a popular and influential figure locally,’ says Bhan, a partner at Trilegal in Delhi. That support – which primarily stems from the achievements of Duterte’s presidency in terms of increased economic growth and a reduction of crime rates – could lead to mass unrest, says Wong.

Local authorities appeared to have shifted their allegiances away from the former President, however, as indicated by their compliance in his arrest. ‘The ICC is heavily reliant on state cooperation, which was key even for the arrest,’ explains Bhan. 

The relationship between the country’s current president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, and his predecessor – once friendly – seems to have soured. President Marcos originally disputed the ICC’s jurisdiction in his country, but ultimately the authorities adhered to the Court’s arrest warrant.

Lau of Human Rights Watch called for President Marcos to rescind Duterte’s orders that led to the ‘war on drugs’ and to prioritise comprehensive reform of the Philippines police. The killings are still ongoing, with Armed Conflict Location & Event Data recording that ‘326 drug war-related civilian fatalities [have taken place] since Marcos Jr. took office.’